India's GDP growth rate in FY24 is estimated to be 7.8%, see figures

India GDP News: India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is expected to be between 6.1 to 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter (January-March) of the last financial year 2023-24. This is less than the eight percent growth rate recorded in the previous quarters. Various economists have made this estimate. The government will release the fourth quarter GDP data and the economy's growth rate estimate for the entire financial year on May 31. According to economists, the growth rate in the financial year 2023-24 is estimated to be between 7.6-7.8 percent.

GDP growth estimated to be 7.6% in the last financial year 

The Indian economy has grown at the rate of 8.2 percent in the June quarter of 2023-24, 8.1 percent in the September quarter and 8.4 percent in the December quarter. Upasana Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said the key data points to broadly strong growth. “Manufacturing activities have also been good and the performance of construction-related and investment sectors should also be better,” he said. However, agricultural sector growth may slow down. We estimate that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will be 6.1 percent and for the entire financial year this figure will be close to 7.6 percent.'' According to the estimate released on May 31, 2023, India's GDP in the March quarter of the financial year 2022-23. The economic growth rate was 6.1 percent. This figure for the entire financial year 2022-23 was seven percent. Bhardwaj said, “We are seeing some slowdown in economic activity in the services sector and industrial sector. This is why the gross value added (GVA) in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.7 percent and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.1 percent.

What is GDP and GVA

GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a given period. At the same time, GVA is obtained by removing net taxes (by removing subsidies from the total tax collection) from GDP. He said, “As far as the current financial year (2024-25) is concerned, Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the growth rate to be 6.6 percent. However, there is scope for it to go upwards.”

Rural consumption likely to accelerate

Bhardwaj said that rural consumption is likely to increase. However, export growth may be affected in the second half of the current financial year. He said, “At present, exports remain quite good. We have not seen much impact of any global disruption in demand on exports. However, it is expected to have some impact in future. This is an area where there is a possibility of a shock to growth.'' DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India, said that both domestic and international institutions are projecting a growth rate of seven percent for India in 2024-25. .

Estimate of 6.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter

Srivastava said, “The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of the last financial year will probably be more than 6.5 percent. In such a situation, this figure will be 7.8 percent for the entire financial year. This is also the estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Another rating agency India Ratings and Research estimates that the country's economic growth rate will be 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Domestic rating agency ICRA had said on Tuesday that India's GDP growth rate will fall to the lowest level in four quarters at 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter of the last financial year.