Mathematics of 90 seats, political chemistry… what does the mood of Haryana say?

Haryana Election 2024: The campaign for the assembly elections in Haryana ended on Thursday evening and now it is the turn of voting. Voting is on Saturday in a single phase for all 90 assembly seats in the state, in which the fate of 1031 candidates is at stake. While BJP is trying to make a hat-trick of power, Congress seems desperate for its return. From BSP-INLD to JJP-ASP alliance and Aam Aadmi Party are trying to become kingmakers. The political mood of Haryana is not completely the same, somewhere BJP has the upper hand and somewhere Congress is likely to get an edge.

The Election Commission has made full preparations for voting on 90 assembly seats of Haryana. A total of 20629 polling stations have been set up for voting in the state. A total of 1031 candidates are in the fray for 90 seats in Haryana, including 930 male and 101 female candidates. The fate of victory or defeat of the candidates will be decided by more than 2.03 crore voters by exercising their franchise. There are 1.07 crore men, 95.77 lakh women and 467 transgender voters.

How many candidates of which party in Haryana?

Out of 90 assembly seats in Haryana, Congress has fielded its candidates on 89 seats and its ally CPI (M) is contesting on one seat. BJP is contesting on 89 seats. The party's candidate from Hisar seat withdrew his nomination and supported Gopal Kanda. JJP and Azad Samaj Party have an alliance, under which JJP candidates are contesting on 66 seats and Azad Samaj candidates are contesting on 12 seats. Similarly, BSP and INLD are contesting together, under which INLD candidates are trying their luck on 51 seats and BSP candidates on 35 seats. Aam Aadmi Party has fielded candidates on 88 out of 90 seats.

Political equation of 2019 elections

In the 2019 assembly elections, a tough fight was seen between BJP and Congress. Out of 90 assembly seats, BJP won 40, Congress won 31, JJP won 10 and 7 were elected as independents. Apart from this, one MLA each from Haryana Janhit Party and INLD were successful in winning. Congress has won in GT Belt and Jatland area, while BJP was successful in capturing power for the second time due to South Haryana and West Haryana. Dushyant Chautala's JJP helped BJP to form the government by giving important support of 10 MLAs.

Election fight can be tight on 25 seats

In 2019, the contest was very tight on 32 out of 90 seats in Haryana. The margin of victory in the last election on these 32 seats was less than ten thousand votes, in which the margin of victory and defeat on 25 seats was less than five thousand. Not only this, the margin of victory and defeat on three seats was less than one thousand votes, while the victory and defeat on seven seats was decided between one thousand to two thousand votes. Similarly, the margin on 15 seats was between 2 thousand to 5 thousand. Out of 25 seats with close fight, 12 seats were won by Congress and 9 seats by BJP while 4 seats went to others.

This time in the assembly elections, small parties enter with the hope of making a big splash along with Congress and BJP. Not only this, many independents are also in the fray, due to which there is a possibility of vote scattering. In such a situation, independents and small parties can spoil the game of BJP and Congress on many seats. Sirsa assembly seat, where the difference was the lowest at 602 votes. Gopal Kanda of Haryana Lokhit Party won and BJP came third while Congress came fourth. Aam Aadmi Party got more votes than the margin of victory. This time Aam Aadmi Party has worked hard in Haryana and BSP-INLD has also put in their full strength.

The political mood of Haryana is seen to be different in different areas. Congress is considered strong in Jatland and Western Haryana belt, while BJP is dependent on GT Road belt and South Haryana area. If Congress succeeds in breaking into BJP's fort, then not only the political equation of Haryana but also the power equation can be disturbed. If we look at the Lok Sabha elections, Congress seems to have the upper hand and it is emerging as the largest party, but the political mood has changed rapidly due to Kumari Selja's displeasure and BJP's sharpening of Dalit politics. In such a situation, the way Congress and Rahul Gandhi have exerted their strength at the last moment, the results can be surprising.

BJP's responsibility rests on two areas

The entire responsibility of BJP's hat-trick of power in Haryana rests on the seats of GT Road Belt and South Haryana area. BJP has been successful in gaining power in 2014 and 2019 due to these two areas. Panchkula, Ambala, Kurukshetra, Yamunanagar, Karnal, Panipat and Kaithal districts come in GT Belt area. A total of 27 assembly seats come in this area. In 2019, out of 27 seats in this area, BJP won 14, Congress 9, JJP 2 and Independents won 2 seats. Earlier in 2014, out of 27 seats here, BJP won 22 seats, Congress-INLD won one seat each and three independents won seats.

On the other hand, Gurgaon, Rewari, Mahendragarh, Nuh, Palwal and Faridabad districts come in South Haryana. There are 23 assembly seats in this area, out of which BJP won 15, Congress won 6 and 2 seats went to others in 2019. In the 2014 elections, BJP won 14 seats and Congress won 4 seats. INLD won 4 seats and one seat was won by an independent. Apart from this, BJP got seven seats in Jatland and only four seats in West Haryana. BJP has completely lost political ground in Jatland and Western Haryana and now its responsibility rests on the GT Road belt and South Haryana area.

Congress faces the challenge of saving its stronghold

Congress has succeeded in becoming the main opposition party with the help of Jatland in the 2019 assembly elections. Congress will have to save its stronghold as well as break into the fort of BJP in order to make its way to power. Rohtak, Sonipat, Jhajjar, Jind, Bhiwani and Charkhi Dadri districts come in Jatland area. There are a total of 25 assembly seats in this area. In 2019, BJP won 7 seats, Congress 12, JJP 4 and Independents 2 seats. In 2014, BJP won 8 seats, Congress 11, INLD 5 and Independents won one seat in this area.

West Haryana includes seats in Hisar, Sirsa, Fatehabad districts. There are a total of 15 assembly seats in this area, in 2019, BJP won 4 seats, Congress 3 and JJP won 5 seats. Apart from this, INLD has got one seat and Gopal Kanda has won one seat. In the 2014 elections, BJP won 3 seats, INLD 8 seats and Congress could not even open its account in this area. This time the situation of JJP is not like the last election, while INLD has tried to regain its lost political ground by forming an alliance with BSP. Congress has been successful to a large extent in establishing its political roots in this area in the Lok Sabha elections, due to which the election results can be surprising.

How will Congress-BJP decide the path to power?

BJP can score a hat-trick of power only if it maintains its hold on GT Road belt and South Haryana. Congress will be able to end its 10-year political exile only if it succeeds in breaking into BJP's vote bank. Congress's position seems strong in the seats of Jatland and West Haryana region, because both Jat and Dalit votes are inclined towards Congress. Due to JJP and INLD not being as strong as before, the Jat community is seen leaning towards Congress, but power is not going to be gained just by this. That is why from Rahul Gandhi to Priyanka Gandhi, everyone has focused the most on GT Road belt, while BJP has also left no stone unturned to protect its stronghold.

Congress wants to retain its hold on the seats in Mewat region of South Haryana and make inroads into the Ahirwal belt and Gurjar dominated areas to claim the throne of power. BJP is also trying to protect its fort in the South, for which it has given a free hand to Union Minister Rao Indrajit. In such a situation, Congress wants to capture power by balancing the Yadav and Muslim equation with the Jat-Dalit vote bank. Talking about the challenges for both Congress and BJP, infighting and rebels can create problems. In such a situation, it remains to be seen who prevails in the game of checkmate?