Russia's permanent pack up, will it now take revenge through this Muslim country?

Russia-Syria News: The regime of Russia's biggest ally, Bashar al-Assad, is in crisis. By the end of November 2024, the situation deteriorated so much that within just 11 days, rebels captured Damascus, and Assad, who had been president for 23 years, had to take refuge in Moscow. This development has raised serious questions about Russia's position in Syria: Will Russia negotiate with the rebels to maintain its military presence, or will it lose its only strategic base in the Middle East?

The direction of Russia's departure from Syria

According to a report in the American newspaper 'The Wall Street Journal', Russia has started gradually withdrawing its military presence from Syria. Experts believe that even though Russia is pulling its strength from Syria, it has found a new base in Libya, which could cause new concerns for NATO.

Russia has started shifting its major military equipment in Syria, such as S-400 and S-300 air defense systems, to Libya. According to US and Libyan officials, Russia has struggled to maintain its presence in the Middle East following the fall of the Assad government in Damascus. According to reports, Russian cargo planes have flown aircraft from Syria to bases controlled by Khalifa Haftar in the eastern part of Libya, indicating this shift.

Russia's longest-standing bases in Syria close

Russia established the Tartus Naval Base on the Syrian coast in 1971, which was Russia's only official naval base outside the Soviet sphere. The Hmeimim Air Base, established in 2015, became an important logistical hub for Russia's military activities in Africa. Russia's military support in favor of the Assad government in Syria provided crucial help against anti-government rebels. However, now Russia is shifting its military bases from Syria, which reflects a significant change in Russia's Middle East policy.

Russia's growing presence in Libya

Despite reducing its military presence from Syria, Russia has stepped up efforts to increase its presence in Libya. According to a report in the British newspaper 'The Telegraph', Russia has strengthened security measures in Libya's air base and built new structures here. Russia has given military and political support to the Haftar-led faction in Libya, which could be a serious challenge for NATO.

The security situation in Libya remains unstable, where conflict continues between anti-government factions. This conflict could become even more deeply complicated due to Russia's activities. If Russia succeeds in permanently establishing its military bases in Libya, it could become a major security threat to NATO.

Russia's influence in Libya and NATO's concerns

According to Frederick Whare, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, Russia's growing influence in Libya could pose a significant challenge to NATO. He points out that, similar to the conflict in Syria, the conflict in Libya could escalate to a larger scale with the growing influence of major regional powers such as Russia and Turkey.

Russia's presence in Libya could have implications for the security of not only the Middle East but also Europe and the Mediterranean. In particular, if Russia succeeds in establishing permanent military bases in Libya, it could challenge NATO's strategic priorities and further destabilize regional stability.

Conclusion

For Russia, the search for new strategic roles in Libya, after winding down its military presence in Syria, signals a redefinition of Russia's Middle East policy. Russia's move in Libya could pose new challenges for NATO and Western countries, and determining Russia's next steps in the Middle East could have significant implications for global security.