Third COVID-19 wave may hit India in Aug, peak in Sept: SBI Research report

New Delhi: India may see the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic from August and it would reach its peak in September, a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) has projected. The report, "Covid-19: the race to finishing line," was prepared by SBI Research. "Going by the current data, India can experience daily Covid-19 cases around 10,000 somewhere around the second week of July. However, the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of August," the report said, adding that the country reached the peak of the second wave on May 7.

The projections are based on "historical trends," the study said. It said that the global data shows that on average, peak cases reached during the third wave are nearly twice or 1.7 times those from the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

The projections come even as the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic recedes and most experts are almost unanimous that a third Covid-19 wave would hit the country. There are, however, various projections over when this potential third wave would arrive.

An SBI report, published in June, said a possible second wave could be "as severe as second," though it also said the number of coronavirus related fatalities would be less than the corresponding figures due to the second wave.

India's second Covid-19 wave was at its peak in April and May. The country saw a record number of daily fresh infections and deaths due to the coronavirus disease several days during this period and also battled an oxygen crisis. Since then, however, daily cases have come down, in part due to restrictions put in place by states and Union territories. Several states and UTs have now started to unlock amid a fall in daily cases.

In the last 24 hours, India recorded 39,796 new Covid-19 cases and 723 deaths due to the viral disease, according to the Union ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) on Monday. The cumulative infection tally has risen to 30,585,229 which includes 29,700,430 recoveries, 482,071 active cases and 402,728 deaths.