What will Congress achieve by fighting on the lost seats? It has not won for a decade

UP By-Election / What will Congress achieve by fighting on the lost seats? It has not won for a decade

UP By-Election - What will Congress achieve by fighting on the lost seats? It has not won for a decade

UP By-Election: Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress are once again going to contest the elections together in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly by-elections. The seat sharing formula has also been decided. Out of the 9 assembly seats in UP, SP will contest on seven seats, while Congress has been given two seats of Khair in Aligarh and Ghaziabad. Interestingly, both these seats are held by BJP, and like the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, SP has given Congress a chance to try its luck on these two tough seats.

SP-Congress seat sharing

Senior SP leader Rajendra Chaudhary said that Congress has been given Ghaziabad and Khair seats, while SP will field its candidates on the remaining seats. The challenge for Congress on both these seats is considered to be very difficult, because Congress has not been able to win the Khair seat for the last 44 years, while Congress has not had any dominance on the Ghaziabad seat for 22 years. In such a situation, the question arises that what does Congress want to achieve in this by-election?

10 assembly seats fell vacant

This by-election was needed because 10 assembly seats fell vacant after 9 MLAs became MPs in the Lok Sabha elections and Sisamau seat MLA Irfan Solanki was convicted. Congress had demanded five seats in the by-election, which included Ghaziabad, Majhawan, Milkipur, Khair and Phulpur. But there was no agreement on seat sharing between SP and Congress, and ultimately Congress got only two seats.

Tough challenge for Congress

Both Khair and Ghaziabad seats are considered to be extremely difficult for the Congress. Congress last won the Khair assembly seat in 1980, while Congress has not won the Ghaziabad seat since 2002. In the 2022 assembly elections, the Congress candidate on the Ghaziabad seat got only 11,818 votes, which was very low. At the same time, Congress got only 1,514 votes in 2022 on the Khair seat, which shows the seriousness of the situation on this seat for the Congress.

BJP's strong hold

So far 18 elections have been held on Ghaziabad assembly seat, in which Congress has won only five times. On the other hand, SP had won this seat only once, in the 2004 by-election. BJP has been holding this seat since 2017. Similarly, BJP has dominated the Khair seat for a long time. According to caste and political equations, Congress is not expected to get any special support on both Khair and Ghaziabad seats. SP's Yadav vote bank is also limited on these seats, which makes the challenge more difficult for Congress.

Will Congress make an upset?

The question is what does Congress want to achieve by contesting elections on these two tough seats? There is a tough fight between BJP on Ghaziabad and Khair seats, and despite the SP-Congress alliance, it will be very difficult for Congress to win these seats. Congress does have some chances with the support of SP, but caste equations and Congress's weak vote bank present a challenging situation for it.

Impact of BJP-RLD alliance

The alliance of BJP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) can also prove to be a big hurdle for the Congress in the by-election. With the votes of the Jat community leaning towards RLD, the BJP alliance seems to have the upper hand. BJP's continuous victory for the last three elections has further strengthened its political hold.

Way forward for Congress

Overall, these two seats of by-election are going to prove to be a tough test for the Congress from a political point of view. Congress neither has a strong vote bank nor any remarkable performance in the previous elections. In such a situation, the objective of the Congress may be to register its presence and gain experience for future strategy rather than taking some special political advantage in the by-election.