Vikrant Shekhawat : Oct 17, 2024, 08:37 AM
US Presidential Election: The excitement of the US Presidential Election 2024 has intensified, and recent surveys and prediction models have made the election scenario more exciting. Kamala Harris seems to be getting a slight lead in many national surveys, but the election prediction model is indicating something different. According to the new election model of Dailymail.com/J.L. Partners, Donald Trump's chances of winning have increased to 62.4 percent, while Kamala Harris's chances are around 40 percent.Kamala Harris's slight leadThe latest survey (October 10-12) by Ipsos/Reuters shows Kamala Harris with a 3 point lead over Donald Trump. According to the survey, Kamala Harris has the support of 47 percent of the people, while Trump has 44 percent. However, this lead cannot be considered decisive as the contest is very close in many key swing states. Out of seven important swing states, Kamala Harris is getting a lead in four, while Trump is ahead in three. But even in these states, the difference between the two candidates is very less, which can make this election one of the closest contests in history.Election Prediction Model: Trump's leadIn the election prediction model of Dailymail.com/J.L. Partners, the probability of Donald Trump's victory is constantly increasing. Last week this probability was 59.8 percent, which has now increased to 62.4 percent. Experts believe that the election wave that is forming in favor of Trump can give him a decisive lead by the day of election. According to Callum Hunter, data scientist of J.L. Partners, Trump is seen to have a lead of 5-6 points in Arizona, while Kamala Harris has got a slight lead of 3-4 points in Pennsylvania. But other surveys, such as Redfield & Wilton, have shown Trump to have a lead of 2 points in Pennsylvania as well.Kamala Harris's decreasing popularityIf seen at the national level, Kamala Harris's lead is gradually decreasing. A big change has been seen in the data especially in the last few days. Harris's national lead has declined since last Friday, and now this election seems to be leaning towards Trump. According to the model of J.L. Partners, Trump can win 312 electoral college votes, while Kamala Harris can be limited to 226 electoral college votes. Keep in mind that in the US presidential election, any candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win.Importance of swing statesSeven major swing states including Arizona, Pennsylvania will play an important role in deciding the results of the election. Due to the slight difference in these states, the events in the last week of the election can prove to be decisive. Election analysts believe that Trump can gradually gain an edge in these swing states, which can ensure his victory.Growing wave in support of TrumpExperts say that the presidential election race now seems to be going in Trump's favor. Given the wave of support for Trump, it is increasingly likely that Kamala Harris will be unable to stop this wave until the election day. The main reason behind this is Trump's lead in swing states, which can decisively turn the electoral college votes in his favor.ConclusionThe contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the upcoming US presidential election is going to be very close. While Kamala Harris is maintaining a slight lead in national surveys, the election prediction model is pointing towards Donald Trump's victory. There is a close contest between the two in swing states, which can affect the final results of the election.