Share Market News / Why does the stock market sink during Kumbh Mela, there is chaos every time

Share Market News: India's Kumbh Mela 2025 is one of the country's largest religious festivals, and this year, it began on Monday. According to reports, more than 4 million devotees took a holy dip at the Sangam on the first day itself. People from across the country and abroad participate in this grand event, hoping to attain salvation by bathing in the holy Ganges. It is believed that taking a dip in the sacred river during the Kumbh Mela purifies the soul and absolves sins. However, did you know that a peculiar trend of stock market decline has been observed during the Kumbh Mela period? Let us explore this fascinating subject with data-driven insights.

The Trend of Stock Market Decline During Kumbh Mela

An analysis conducted by Samco Securities revealed that over the past 20 years, whenever the Kumbh Mela was held, the benchmark stock index Sensex experienced a decline. According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at Samco Securities, the Sensex's performance remained negative from the beginning to the end of each Kumbh Mela period.

How Much Did Sensex Decline During Each Kumbh Mela?

The data from the last six Kumbh Melas shows that the Sensex recorded a decline every time. During the average 52-day duration of the festival, the Sensex saw a drop of approximately 3.4%.

Kumbh Mela Start Date	Kumbh Mela End Date	Sensex Return (in %)
05 April 2004	04 May 2004	-3.3
14 January 2010	28 April 2010	-1.2
14 January 2013	11 March 2013	-1.3
14 July 2015	28 September 2015	-8.3
22 April 2016	23 May 2016	-2.4
01 April 2021	19 April 2021	-4.2

The largest drop in the Sensex was observed during the 2015 Kumbh Mela, with an 8.3% decline from July to September 2015. Similarly, the 2021 Kumbh Mela period saw a 4.2% drop. On the other hand, the smallest decline was recorded during the 2010 Kumbh Mela, at just 1.2%.

Sensex Recovery Trend After Kumbh Mela

Although the stock market shows a downward trend during the Kumbh Mela, it tends to recover in the subsequent six months. According to Samco Securities, the Sensex delivered positive returns five out of six times in the six months following the Kumbh Mela. On average, the Sensex saw an 8% increase after the festival. The most significant recovery occurred after the 2021 Kumbh Mela, when the Sensex surged by nearly 29%.

Sensex Performance After Kumbh Mela

6 Months After Kumbh Mela	Sensex Return (in %)
2004	1
2010	16.8
2013	1.8
2015	-2.5
2016	2.1
2021	28.8

The 2021 Kumbh Mela was followed by the highest increase in the Sensex, with a remarkable 28.8% growth. Similarly, the 2010 Kumbh Mela period saw a 16.8% rise in the Sensex. However, after the 2015 Kumbh Mela, the Sensex posted a negative return of -2.5%.

Possible Reasons for the Decline

Experts believe that several factors could contribute to the unusual market behavior during the Kumbh Mela. One of the primary reasons is the cautious approach of investors during this period. Many people are more engaged in religious activities during the Kumbh, which might impact investment and trading activities. Additionally, global economic factors could also influence the market during this time.

Current Situation

With the commencement of the Kumbh Mela 2025, the Indian stock market has already shown signs of a decline. On Monday, the Sensex dropped by more than 800 points, closing at 76,677.06. Historical data suggests that further declines could be expected in the coming days.

Conclusion

The Kumbh Mela has historically shown a curious pattern of stock market decline. However, these drops have proven to be temporary, with the market recovering significantly after the festival. Investors should view the Kumbh Mela period as an opportunity rather than a cause for panic. History has shown that the market performs well in the long term following the Kumbh Mela, providing valuable insights for long-term investors.