Danger Siren / Half of Delhi-NCR 'red' on the Kovid map, leaving Kerala and Mizoram behind

With the infection rate increasing in half of the NCR including Delhi, Kovid has rang alarm bells. In the last one week, every third infected has come from this area. Between April 7 and 14, about 29 percent of the total infected people found in the country are from Delhi-NCR. If the situation worsens, after the end of the third wave, now this area can become the epicenter of the epidemic.

If we look at the figures, 7088 corona patients came from all the states in a week. Of these, 2023 patients have been found in Delhi, Gurugram, Faridabad, Sonipat, Gautam Budh Nagar and Ghaziabad, which is about 28.54 percent. Whereas on Wednesday, 1088 new cases were reported in the country within a day. In these, every second patient has been found in Delhi or in the cities adjacent to the border.

299 cases were reported in Delhi, 146 in Gurugram, 27 in Faridabad and 33 in Noida. Senior Dr. Sanjay Rai of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi says that it can be considered as a new wave of corona from NCR region. It is too early to say anything about its impact. At the same time, Dr. Girdhar Giri, a member of the Lancet Kovid-19 Commission India Task Force, says that in the last few days, the infection has increased in Kerala, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra and Mizoram. Talking about NCR only, there has been the highest increase in the whole country.

Corona growing rapidly in NCR

Why is Corona growing so fast in only a few districts of NCR? On this question, Dr. Suresh Kumar, director of Loknayak Hospital, Delhi's largest Kovid center, said that the main reason for this is the behavior of the people. There is no longer a fine for not wearing a mask. Most stopped wearing masks as soon as the rules changed. People's activities increased after getting exemption from various restrictions. From the weekly market to the main markets, the pictures of the daily crowd are clearly visible.

Think like this, a sign of a new wave

Dr. Girdhar says that in order to know the new wave of epidemics, it is necessary to understand many important trends at the level of both epidemiological and mathematical models. Whenever the infection rate and daily cases increase for two consecutive weeks, it is a sign of a new wave. When this situation of two weeks or 15 days is seen in the form of a graph with a mathematical model, then a new wave also starts appearing.

Know like this, the wave will be light or severe

How to know whether an epidemic wave may be severe or mild? On this, Dr. Samiran Panda, epidemiologist of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) based in New Delhi, says that the effect of any wave is shown by the condition of local hospitals. Just like the infection has increased in NCR, but the number of patients in hospitals has not increased. This trend has to be seen for about two weeks. Based on the current trend, it can be said that the effect of the new wave may be mild and less effective than that of Omicron. It doesn't mean that people should be careless.

10 percent increase in patients in Delhi hospitals

Information has been received from the Delhi Health Department that there has been an increase of about 10 percent in patients related to corona in hospitals. Till April 7, a total of 39 patients were admitted in these hospitals, including 24 suspected and 15 infected patients, but by April 13, the total number of patients in the hospitals increased to 43. These include 32 suspects and 11 infected patients.

Data for last seven days

Area           New Case    Infection Rate (in percent)

Country           7088         0.23

Delhi-NCR      2023         3.60

Kerala             1708         2.20

Maharashtra     758         0.50

Haryana          721           3.05

Mizoram          711            8.1

Uttar Pradesh   239          00

(NCR includes Delhi and five surrounding cities, all figures are as of Wednesday.)

(28 percent of the cases in UP have been recorded only in Gautam Budh Nagar and Ghaziabad.)

Preventive measures

• Do not stop wearing face masks, stay away from crowds and keep washing hands frequently.
• Those who have not completed their vaccination should get the vaccine immediately.
• Those who took the second dose nine months ago must also take a precautionary dose.
• It is important to focus on maintaining immunity.