UP Elections 2024 / Akhilesh tried to save his fort through Jamali and Balram

UP Elections 2024: The political chessboard for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections is being laid through the elections being held on 13 Legislative Council seats in Uttar Pradesh. BJP has made a move to settle the political equation by giving one MLC seat each to its three allies - RLD, SubhaSP and Apna Dal (S). At the same time, SP, taking a lesson from the Rajya Sabha elections, announced the names of candidates for three MLC seats, in which two could be from backward class and one from Muslim community. SP fielded candidates according to social equation. Akhilesh Yadav is trying to regain control of his Azamgarh seat through MLC elections.

SP has decided to contest the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh in alliance with Congress, but it seems that Akhilesh Yadav is not confident of victory in 2024. Even after the alliance with BSP-RLD in 2019, SP had lost the Firozabad, Badaun and Kannauj seats of 'Yadav family'. Akhilesh's wife Dimple had to face a crushing defeat from Kannauj. SP has also lost Azamgarh seat in the by-election. Dimple has reached Parliament from Mainpuri seat, which became vacant after the death of Mulayam Singh Yadav, and has again entered the electoral fray, while there is talk of Akhilesh Yadav contesting from Azamgarh and Kannauj. Before contesting the Azamgarh seat, Akhilesh is first trying to correct the political equation of that seat.

SP eyes on Muslim, Yadav votes

On behalf of Akhilesh Yadav, three candidates have got the green signal for the MLC elections, which include the names of Balram Yadav, Kiranpal Kashyap and Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali. Balram Yadav and Guddu Jamali come from Azamgarh district while Kiranpal Kashyap comes from Western UP. It is believed that there is a plan to create political balance on Azamgarh seat through Guddu Jamali and Balram Yadav and also to snatch the seat from BJP. This is the reason why Akhilesh has placed bets on the faces of Balram Yadav, Guddu Jamali and Kiranpal Kashyap, ignoring Alok Shakya and Naresh Uttam on the last day of nomination.

According to the number of MLAs in Uttar Pradesh, out of 13 MLC seats, BJP can win 10 and SP can win 3 seats. SP President Akhilesh Yadav is preparing to bet on the PDA formula this time. That is why it has been decided to make two leaders from OBC community and one leader from Muslim quota as MLC, for which they finalized the names after consulting senior party leaders. Earlier, Alok Shakya's name was running in the race, but later SP gave green signal to Balram Yadav's name.

Azamgarh seat important for SP

SP may have tried to give a political message before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections through MLC elections, but according to political analysts, the reason behind making the candidates of Guddu Jamali and Balram Yadav is being linked to Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat. Azamgarh has been a stronghold of SP, Mulayam Singh Yadav has been the MP and after that Akhilesh Yadav was elected MP in 2019. In 2022, Akhilesh Yadav resigned from Azamgarh seat after becoming MLA, after which Dharmendra Yadav contested the by-election, but BJP's Dinesh Lal Yadav alias Nirahua was successful in winning.

Guddu Jamali spoiled the game in 2019

The one who spoiled the game of SP in Azamgarh was Guddu Jamali, who contested the elections from BSP. Jamali had contested the elections from BSP, due to which he got about 40 percent votes of the Muslim community. There is a saying, 'He drinks even the burnt buttermilk of milk.' Akhilesh is also doing exactly the same. SP wants to settle scores with BJP in Azamgarh Lok Sabha elections 2024. That is why there is a move to make both Balram Yadav and Guddu Jamali as MLC so that a political message can be given to both the Yadav and Muslim vote banks in Azamgarh.

In Azamgarh Lok Sabha by-election, BJP's Dinesh Lal Nirahua got 312768 votes, while SP candidate Dharmendra Yadav got 304089 votes. Whereas, BSP's Guddu Jamali was in third place with 266210 votes. If Guddu Jamali from BSP had not contested the election, then Dharmendra Yadav's victory was certain, because his entry into the election field led to division of Muslim votes. BJP got direct benefit from this and Dharmendra Yadav had to face defeat. Akhilesh Yadav is preparing to contest elections from Azamgarh seat, for which the party has made complete preparations.

Akhilesh Yadav will contest elections from Azamgarh

SP may not have declared its candidate for Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, but Akhilesh is certain to contest the election. Azamgarh is considered the safest seat for SP, due to which the party lost, now SP has made a move to eliminate that reason. Guddu Jamali's return to SP and MLC is at stake. Not only this, Balram Yadav is considered a veteran leader of Azamgarh and his son Sangram Yadav is an MLA from SP.

If we look at the political equation of Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, the maximum number of Yadav votes is around four and a half lakh. Muslims and Dalits are three lakh voters each while the remaining are voters of other castes. Just as the Yadav community among the OBCs is the core voter of the SP, the number of Jatavs, who are considered the basic vote bank of the BSP, is more among the Dalits. SP wants to keep both Yadav and Muslim vote banks together, because Akhilesh himself wants to enter the electoral fray. In such a situation, the party does not want to take any risky step. That is why by deciding to make Jamali and Balram Yadav as MLC, Akhilesh Yadav has made a strategy to strengthen his fort.

Kiranpal Kashyap will be the third MLC candidate from Samajwadi Party. He has also been an MLA from Thana Bhawan in Shamli district of Western UP. Kiranpal, who was a minister in the UP government, is also the national secretary of Samajwadi Party. In many areas from Purvanchal to Western UP, Kashyap voters decide victory or defeat. For this reason, BJP has formed an alliance with Sanjay Nishad's party in UP. By putting forward Kiranpal Kashyap, SP is trying to give a political message from Muzaffarnagar seat of Western UP to Kairana Lok Sabha seat.